CRG Weekly: COP and Critical National Infrastructure
News from the China Research Group
Live discussion on Monday: Tom Tugendhat MP will be in conversation with Desmond Shum, an entrepreneur who rose to the zenith of power and money in 21st century China before his wife - who had close ties to Wen Jiabao’s wife - mysteriously disappeared. The conversation will be streamed live on Twitter at 2:30pm and released shortly afterwards on podcast.
Catch up:
We hosted an expert panel on Monday to discuss China’s approach to climate action ahead of COP26. You can watch here or listen back on our podcast.
Where does China stand on climate change ahead of COP26? Read our analysis of China’s approach to climate governance and the dilemma Beijing faces in transitioning to clean energy.
The UK’s COP26 challenge
As the world’s attention turns to Glasgow this weekend, politicians, climate analysts and journalists alike have been pontificating about what a successful COP26 summit will look like.
No new treaty architecture will be drawn up over the next fortnight. Instead, the talks between delegates from nearly 200 nations will present an opportunity for a status check on the commitments made following the Paris Climate Conference in 2015. COP26 is going to be a key test of belief in multilateralism through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) system and whether countries can agree to set out a path to close gaps between current commitments and the level of action required to reach the target of limiting global warming to 1.5C since pre-industrial times.
The summit is seen by Downing Street as critical to validating its championing of climate action as a key component of its Global Britain prospectus. COP President Alok Sharma will call on the major climate players to phase out coal, invest in biodiversity, and support developing nations in their transition to net zero. Persuading China and the US, the world’s biggest polluters, to commit to tougher new parameters for reducing emissions over the next decade will be high on the agenda for Sharma and his team.
With China, it already appears this will be a difficult battle to win. Earlier this week, we published an analysis of Beijing’s reluctance to wean its economy off coal, counterbalancing the impressive strides China has made in renewables production. The lack of decisive action to clamp down on coal is, principally, a response to domestic threats of social instability and economic stagnation, fears that were borne out recently when power shortages prompted policymakers to rethink the pace of the nation’s energy transition.
China’s revised climate action plans, or NDCs, unveiled this week, outlined only small improvement on previously announced ambitions to peak carbon emissions by 2030. In a call with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Friday, Chinese President Xi Jinping - who won’t be attending the upcoming summit - warned that cuts to greenhouse gases would only be gradual due to “extensive and profound economic and social changes” which would have to be undertaken cautiously.
What does China’s coal dependence mean for engaging with Chinese officials at COP and beyond?
Short-term stability seems destined to trump concerns over climate for the CCP - Beijing is only likely to take more decisive climate action if it’s perceived to be in its own interests. During our pre-COP event on Monday, China Dialogue Founder Isabel Hilton stressed that: “it's a mistake to assume that whatever Britain says to China is going to make much difference...Xi does not want to be seen at home to be doing the bidding of any foreign power."
However, the UK and its allies could start leading by example in key areas of climate diplomacy. Whilst China’s Belt and Road Initiative has received criticism for facilitating the export of (predominantly steel) overcapacity that is rooted in high-carbon infrastructure, wealthy nations have - so far - provided insufficient support to the worlds poorest and most climate-vulnerable countries.
The G7’s Build Back Better World (B3W) scheme has failed to put together a concrete financial package to aid the green growth and infrastructure needs of developing countries. OECD nations are also failing to mobilise the US$100 billion annually - pledged in the Paris Agreement - to support climate action in the Global South. The UK wants developing nations to agree to no longer seek to establish new coal plants to underpin their economic growth this week - we have to commit to playing a leading role in capacity building and support for countries to adapt to the considerable structural changes this will entail.
This lack of solidarity on the part of wealthy nations has a wider geopolitical knock-on effect. It gives China - a self-proclaimed champion of the developing world - a protective shield from criticism of its own emissions misdemeanours. Reputation is important to the CCP and it has staked considerable political capital in cultivating the image of China as a global climate leader by framing itself as the champion of G77 nations’ green transitions. Putting forward an alternative offering would challenge Beijing to double down on renewables investment across the BRI and clean up its emissions domestically.
Whilst relations between the UK and China aren’t exactly on an even keel at present, climate represents an arena for genuine multilateral cooperation. COP26 won’t be an end in itself, but it will represent a crucial test of both the UK’s restoration of its image as a capable diplomatic actor and the world’s ability to set aside individual vested interests to solve the defining problem of our era.
The summit will be considered a success if leaders head home with a clear roadmap for reaching 1.5 and an understanding of their individual and collective roles in achieving this target. Coaxing out more concrete pledges from Beijing will go a long way to reaching that point.
In brief
China announced a new clean energy goal of reducing fossil fuel use to below 20% by 2060, but its latest major climate plan, unveiled on Thursday, failed to include any significant new pledges. The EU’s top climate official Frans Timmermans and China’s special envoy on climate Xie Zhenhua met in London on Wednesday ahead of COP 26. Xi Jinping is not expected to attend the summit.
Following Foreign Secretary Liz Truss’s interview with The Telegraph last weekend, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs denounced her remarks about dependency on China as ‘irresponsible’. Later in the week, British UN ambassador Barbara Woodward said that the UK will continue to work closely with China on international peace and security in an interview the following day.
The head of GCHQ urged British citizens to back up their data amid a growing threat of cyberattacks from China. Nissan and China’s Envision are set to start production at a Sunderland gigafactory in 2024; CGN is to be squeezed out of UK nuclear projects under a new deal by business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng.
US officials discussed urged support for Taiwan’s "meaningful" participation at the UN, and introduced a bill to upgrade Taiwan’s status in the regional development bank. Meanwhile, Xi marked the country's 50 years of membership in the UN with a speech calling for greater global cooperation.
Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu visited Slovakia and Czech Republic despite Beijing’s warnings of retaliation. A delegation led by French MEP Raphael Glucksmann from the European Parliament will travel to Taiwan next week to meet Taipei officials.
The US Federal Communications Commission on Tuesday voted to order China Telecom to stop providing services in the US due to national security concerns. A day later, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai claimed she aims to reduce US-China tensions through stabilising trade.
New Zealand’s high commissioner to Australia said her nation could join the AUKUS security pact to boost cyber technologies. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison sought ASEAN's understanding over AUKUS and held talks with French President Emmanuel Macron, who had also called Xi earlier in the week.
China is reportedly building a new military base in Tajikistan as Wang Yi met with Serbian National Assembly President and reaffirmed support for the Taliban. ASEAN upgraded ties with China, Vietnam and Malaysia supporting its CPTPP bid.
An event discussing a German book on Xi Jinping was cancelled at last minute due to the Chinese consulate’s pressure. Posters with Tibetan flag were also reportedly removed outside the Chinese Embassy in Denmark.
Beijing locked down four northern cities, cancelled the Beijing and Wuhan marathons, and started vaccinating children as young as 3 amid a new Covid outbreaks.
Amnesty International closed its Hong Kong offices due to the national security law. A bill to censor films ‘contrary’ to China’s national security has also been passed, marking the 46th government bill approved in the opposition-free legislature.
Weekend reads
Britain and Australia aren’t actually treaty allies – they should be. AUKUS, for all its noise, is still just an agreement. All this needs to be bound for the long-term – as tightly as possible, argues Ben Judah. Lowy Interpeter
Grandstanding or sincere? China’s move to join the CPTPP. Aya Adachi explores the possibility of China joining the trans-pacific trade agreement and the commitments it would have to make in order to do so. MERICS
Harnessed Lightning: How the Chinese military is adopting artificial intelligence. A new report by CSET examines nearly 350 artificial intelligence-related equipment contracts awarded by the People’s Liberation Army and state-owned defence enterprises in 2020 to assess how the Chinese military is adopting AI. CSET
Podcasts
Red Roulette: It sucks to be a Chinese billionaire. ChinaTalk
COP26 and China’s Global Climate Agenda. GMF
Delta Damage: Asia’s continuing covid struggle. Asia Matters