CRG Weekly: Sixth Plenum, zero-Covid and climate cooperation
News from the China Research Group
BN(O) amendment. China Research Group committee member Damian Green MP put forward an amendment to the Nationality and Borders Bill, supported by Tom Tugendhat MP, to enable those from Hong Kong with at least one parent who is a British national (overseas) to apply for the BN(O) visa.
The UK and Critical Minerals. This week we launched a new policy briefing on China’s critical minerals strategy and the UK’s dependence on China for the supply of the materials that will be crucial to realising our net zero ambitions. Read the full briefing here.
CRG Chair, Tom Tugendhat, and Director of Research, Julia Pamilih, also penned a Times Red Box comment piece.
US-China rhetoric won’t solve our climate woes if Beijing stays hooked on coal. Julia Pamilih wrote for City A.M. on the welcome US-China joint agreement on climate change. But can China go far enough and fast enough on phasing out coal?
As Xi cements his place in history, how long can China’s zero-Covid strategy last?
On Thursday, Chinese state-run news outlet Xinhua revealed that the Chinese Communist Party had approved a landmark resolution at the culmination of the Sixth Plenum of the Party's Central Committee.
At the meeting, senior officials elevated the role of Xi by crediting him in an official document as "the main innovator" behind "Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era". The resolution placed Xi on the same pedestal as the nation's founding father Mao Zedong and reformist leader Deng Xiaoping.
The Sixth Plenum communique heaped glowing praise on the perceived progress made under Xi's leadership, explicitly referring to the successful containment of Covid-19. China has an official Covid death toll of 6,000 compared to 808,000 excess deaths in the US and 152,000 in the UK.
The Party’s efforts to eliminate Covid have remained typically draconian as a smattering of new cases has spread across the country. Three Chinese cities with a population of 6m were locked down as of the end of last month. More than 30,000 people were locked inside Disneyland Shanghai and tested, after the discovery of a single case of Covid. Two pharmacies in suburban Beijing lost their licences for selling cold medicines to a couple without logging their names in a virus-tracking database.
The country where the pandemic first broke out is now entering its third year of a public health emergency. Whilst the rest of the world (including neighbouring countries with previously stringent pandemic-control regimes) has eased restrictions and opened borders, Beijing seems determined to pursue a ‘zero-Covid’ strategy to completely eradicate the virus ahead of February’s Winter Olympics and the 20th Party Congress later in 2022.
Shutdowns and mass testing of tens of millions of people worked well in keeping a lid on the initial outbreak - whilst the US and Europe were overwhelmed by infections - but now seem increasingly anachronistic in a world that is learning to live with the virus.
The CCP’s unwillingness to deviate from its virus elimination strategy has global ramifications. This week, the former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney urged Beijing to reconsider its approach, stressing that a failure to change course would lead to the continuation of major supply chain disruptions and the inflationary pressures that come with them. From a UK perspective, the threat of prolonged disruption is likely to put pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates as inflation reaches 5%.
China is also running the risk of becoming isolated at a time when global cooperation is imperative for tackling transnational issues such as climate change and the pandemic recovery. The CCP is confident that the world now needs China more than China needs the world, but it is difficult to put a positive spin on developments such as international executives exiting a country that grew so rapidly because of an inflow of foreign capital, ideas, and management expertise. China's economy grew 4.9% in the July to September, the slowest pace in a year, amid restricted consumer spending and property and energy crises.
Strict border security measures have, in effect, made it impossible for foreigners to visit China without staying for several months, or for most Chinese people to travel abroad. There has been a severe drop-off in foreign students heading to China, a blow to the people-to-people exchanges that have been an important pillar of diplomacy between China and the outside world. Rana Mitter, professor of Chinese History and Politics at the University of Oxford, pointed out to the Financial Times that “closed borders will lead to closed minds”.
At present, many Chinese still see the sacrifice of individual liberties by a minority as a necessary evil to enable the country to benefit from a Covid-free existence. The overwhelming of hospitals in Wuhan in early 2020 is still fresh in minds and border restrictions only impact the 13% of the Chinese population with passports. Life in China is still relatively normal for the majority of its citizens, whilst, according to The Economist, the West is depicted by Chinese state media as a “death-stalked hellhole.”
However, signs of disgruntlement have become detectable. Analysts and health experts are starting to ask how long the zero-Covid policy can last: two leading epidemiologists and a doctor in Chengdu wrote an open letter warning pandemic officials that mass testing must be guided by science, and risks causing panic. On Chinese social media, complaints of pandemic fatigue are growing - tales of normality in the rest of the world cause those locked down to feel increasingly restless.
There’s little indication that Chinese authorities will relax controls in the near-future given the upcoming high-profile events. Pandemic control has become entangled with political legitimacy.
For now, the government remains effective at engineering public buy-in through deriding lax measures by Western governments letting their people needlessly contract the virus. However, widespread support for the zero-Covid approach will come under strain should more suffer from prolonged lockdowns and economic growth continue to stutter.
The week in brief
China and the US announced that they have agreed to boost climate cooperation over the next decade as COP26 negotiations spill over into the weekend. Xi Jinping said that China is ready to properly manage differences with the US ahead of a long-awaited virtual summit between him and Joe Biden, scheduled for Monday evening.
Meanwhile, the UK announced £274m boost to climate resilience across Indo-Pacific; Minister for Asia Amanda Milling reiterated the UK’s commitment on the Indo-Pacific.
The long-running Telecoms Bill returned to the Commons on Monday for consideration of Lords amendments. Both non-government Lords amendments - one based on parity with Five Eyes and one asking for an annual update on network diversification - were voted down.
PWC laid out a £1billion expansion plan for China, unveiling a strategy that would make its presence almost twice the size of its UK operations. Meanwhile, London’s Nine Elms Square, the centrepiece of Europe’s biggest regeneration project and a £3bn joint development venture between Chinese developers R&F and CC Land, has reportedly struggled to attract property buyers.
European lawmakers demanded a special task force be established for “monitoring interference coming from China” to disrupt democratic processes in the EU. The bloc is set to unveil its $46billion ‘Global Gateway’ strategy to counter China’s Belt and Road. Similarly, projects associated with the G7 ‘B3W’ initiative will reportedly be rolled out in January.
Japanese PM Kishida appointed ‘pro-China’ candidate Yoshimasa Hayashi as foreign minister, although he is also expected to strengthen ties with the US and take a more assertive approach to regional security. Meanwhile, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) agreed to partner with Sony on its new $7 billion chip factory in Japan in an effort to meet supply shortfalls for older 22nm and 28nm chips.
Hong Kong newspaper executive, Cheung Kim-hung, on trial for national security offences, had his bail denied in part because of comments made by the then Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, which prosecutors cited as evidence of a “close association” with foreign political groups. For the first time, a Hong Kong activist was sentenced to five years and nine months in jail under the national security law for chanting political slogans.
Satellite images revealed that the Chinese military is using a fake US aircraft carrier for missile target practice in a remote desert.
Corporate sponsors of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics were accused of “squandering the opportunity” to pressure China to address its “appalling human rights record”.
China’s biggest private tuition provider, New Oriental Education & Technology Group, closed nearly all of its 1,500-plus learning centres in the wake of new regulations that ban many in the sector from making a profit.
Weekend reads
The world is fed up with China’s belligerence. Democracies are no longer as worried as they once were about offending a fragile Beijing. Chris Horton, The Atlantic
An uncommon theory for common prosperity. When the transition gets tough, common prosperity justifies the end goal. Damien Ma, MacroPolo
Inside China's electric car capital, where rush hour is almost silent. China has pushed ahead with manufacturing electric vehicles and dominates the global market – but can it last forever? Sophia Yan, The Telegraph
Podcasts
Selling China’s story. ChinaTalk
What does the US need to do to effectively compete with China’s Digital Silk Road? The China in Africa Podcast
China’s prospects for joining the CPTPP. China Global