CRG Weekly: Tiananmen, CPTPP and G7
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The week in review
Yesterday marked the 32nd anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre. In Hong Kong, an annual Victoria Park candlelit vigil to pay tribute to those who died in the brutal military crackdown would normally have been attended by tens of thousands of Hong Kongers. This year, seven thousand Hong Kong police officers were dispatched across the city to prevent the population from gathering.
Anyone taking part in a vigil could face up to five years in jail: the vice chairwoman of the Hong Kong Alliance which organises annual vigils, Ms. Chow Hang Tung, was arrested on Friday for ‘promoting unauthorised assembly’. Whilst the Hong Kong’s Security Bureau cited the Covid pandemic as the reason for the ban, most view the move as an extension of the crackdown on freedom symbolised by the imposition of last year’s National Security Law. With Taiwan suffering from a serious Covid outbreak, leaving people to remember the massacre at home or online, this was the first time that there was no public commemoration in the Chinese-speaking world. In mainland China, all references to the events of Tiananmen Square are heavily censored.
The 11 CPTPP member nations formally invited the UK to begin its accession to becoming the newest member of the CPTPP. Japan has taken a leading role in reviving the free trade agreement between 11 Pacific nations, which together represent 500 million people and around 15% of global trade. The CPTPP will purportedly promote stricter regulations on labour rights, state subsidies, and environmental targets than the China-led RCEP, which has been ratified by China, Japan, Singapore, and Thailand. Whilst the immediate economic benefits may be marginal - CPTPP nations account for around 9% of UK exports at the time of writing - the symbolic value is high. The next question is whether Beijing will step up its own efforts to join the CPTPP.
Next week will be busy as the G7 kicks off in Cornwall. The biggest China story briefed so far is via Bloomberg, which reports that the G7 will agree to a new strategic framework for infrastructure called the Clean Green Initiative - seen as a rival to the Belt and Road Initiative. It is worth noting the crucial caveat that sources are “not clear whether any new money” will back the new framework. Six former British foreign secretaries have also written to Prime Minister Boris Johnson to “ensure that the crisis in Hong Kong is on the agenda”. The US will be looking to bring Europe closer to its China strategy: in another sign of policy continuity under the new administration, Biden signed an executive order last week that barred US investors from 59 Chinese companies with defence and surveillance ties.
In brief
A £50m joint research centre between the UK's National Nuclear Laboratory and the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) is set to be scrapped over national security concerns. The deal was unveiled in 2015 at the height of the ‘golden era’.
The Uyghur Tribunal is under way in London. 30 witnesses will give evidence for a panel of judges, which will rule on whether the Chinese government's alleged human rights abuses in the Xinjiang region constitute a genocide.
Covid-19: Wuhan lab leak is ‘feasible’, say British spies. Britain's intelligence agencies are helping the US to investigate whether Covid leaked from a Chinese laboratory. Chinese state media hit back, citing comments by health experts that the evidence for a lab leak had become politicised.
In a joint statement, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Arden and her Australian counterpart Scott Morrison warned that efforts to divide the two countries would fail. The pair stressed that their two nations stand together on their shared principles of human rights and free, fair trade.
Xi ordered officials to improve the way they tell China’s story to foreign audiences. China’s President emphasised the need to improve external outreach and explore different ways of communicating to different parts of the world to help foreigners understand the Chinese Communist Party.
The Chinese yuan reached three-year highs against the US dollar; PBOC moved to change rules on foreign exchange reserves to cool the rally. Chinese factory activity dropped slightly in May, but consumer spending was bolstered by the five-day Labour Day holiday.
The southern Chinese province of Guangdong has gone into lockdown as health officials battle an outbreak of Covid cases. The fast-spreading Indian variant has been identified has been detected; anyone who wishes to leave the province must submit a negative test within 72 hours before departure (Reuters).
China’s Sinovac received WHO emergency approval, opening the door for the vaccine to be added to the Covax programme (Al Jazeera).
What we’re reading:
Powers of Persuasion. Reports from a recent Politburo study session suggest that Xi Jinping will try to promote a softer diplomatic tone, marking a shift away from ‘Wolf Warrior’ rhetoric. On closer inspection, this may represent a call to the West to see things China’s way. China Media Project
China’s communist century: An ongoing balancing act. Life as a rising power with publicly stated leadership aims and reform ambitions is not comfortable, writes Yu Jie at Chatham House.
Once upon a time in Chinatown: the struggles of London’s first Chinese migrants. A detailed, moving account of the struggles of Chinese migrants who arrived in the late eighteenth century to build communities amid a backdrop of discrimination in SCMP.
The return of the West: can the G7 nations rebuild a global alliance? The year 2020 represented a new nadir for Western values. New Statesman.
What we’re listening to:
China’s Industrial Policy w/ Emily de La Bruyere. European Straits
China Moves Ahead with Vaccine Distribution While COVAX and US Efforts Falter. The China in Africa Project
Xi Jinping: ‘The Man of Destiny’. China, If You’re Listening (ABC)
‘Debating China’s 5G Infrastructure in Europe: A Conversation with Janka Oertel’. ChinaPower
And interesting events next week:
U.S. Book Launch for “China’s Civilian Army: The Making of Wolf Warrior Diplomacy”. CSIS - 7 June
‘Can the Biden Administration Protect US Digital Interests in Europe With a New Strategy of “Realpolitik”?’. Information Technology and Innovation Foundation - 8 June
Is the China career dead? SupChina - 10 June